OK, there are two things you should read before continuing here. First, this from Jon Heyman, who suggests that “Omar Minaya is on thin ice” and “some Mets people believe the biggest reason Minaya is being kept for now is the three years and $3.5 million remaining on his contract.”
Second, this from Jeff Sackmann at the Hardball Times, which evaluates how teams fare in earning value from the draft, international free agency, trades, waivers and plain-old free agency.
By his system, the Mets ranked second from last in the Majors in 2009 in getting value from the draft, received no value from international free agents, were near the middle in trade and waiver-wire pickups, and dead last in value spent versus value returned in free agency.
Sackmann’s system is admittedly limited, plus he’s only working from 2009, when the Mets didn’t really get much value out of anybody. Still, it underscores something many Mets fans — this one included — have been saying for years: Omar Minaya does not spend his resources efficiently.
I always take offseason rumors from anonymous sources with several grains of salt, but what Heyman suggests does seem to jive with everything that has happened in the Mets’ front office and every rumor we’ve heard.
And if it’s really true, the Mets should fire Omar Minaya right now.
Look: Either you have confidence in a GM to build your team for the upcoming season and the future or you don’t. “Putting the heat on him,” as has been suggested, is about the worst possible approach. That only further pushes Minaya toward moves of desperation, the type made to save his job but not necessarily to forward the franchise.
That’s a bad thing. That’s the opposite of progress. That’s regress.
What’s worse, keeping the guy around just because he’s owed more money is not only a pitiful misunderstanding of sunk-cost economics, but a massively ironic one. If — as Sackmann shows — Omar Minaya does not spend money efficiently, then why continue paying him to waste your money just because you owe him a tiny fraction of your overall budget?
If the Mets think Minaya is the guy to run the Mets for the long haul, they should make that abundantly clear to everyone and make sure no one in their front office is leaking out any suspicions to the contrary.
After all, Minaya — maybe as much as any GM in baseball — is conscious of public perception. Remember, this is the guy who couldn’t go out for bagels without hearing about how he should fix the bullpen.
And if the Mets are unwilling to make a long-term commitment to Minaya as a general manager, there’s no sense in making a short-term commitment.
There might be some advantage to having a manager know he’s on the hot seat, because it might compel him to shake things up and think of new and better ways to get the team to win. It’s the manager’s job to try to win immediately.
But that’s not the case with the GM. The GM must be held responsible for the present and the future. He needs to focus on building a sustainable winner, not a patchwork club wearing thin on resources.
Putting the GM on the hot seat will only force him to make myopic decisions, precisely the type that got the Mets into this mess in the first place.