The full Nelson
I promised hdarvick I’d post something about Nelson Figueroa yesterday and failed, but here’s something.
Conventional wisdom says that Nelson Figueroa should not be allowed to pitch more than a certain limited number of innings in any given Major League stint before he’s exposed and big-league hitters figure out his stuff, but I’ve never been much one for conventional wisdom.
Figueroa pitched well for the Mets down the stretch last season, long after the wheels had already come off for the rest of the team, and exceptionally well in Buffalo. It’s difficult to put too much stock in the 70 1/3 innings he totaled for the big-league club in 2009 because of the sample size, but they can’t be entirely discounted either. He finished with a perfectly average 100 ERA+ and a reasonable 2.46 K/BB ratio, highlighting his season with the Mets’ only shutout at Citi Field.
Figueroa has a long history of very good Triple-A stats, but he did pitch better than usual at both that level and the Majors last year, and it’s difficult to decipher why. There was probably some luck involved, since Figueroa significantly lowered his home run per flyball rate and batting average on balls in play — figures that usually normalize in time — in 2009.
Judging from Fangraphs, using a limited sample, it appears Figueroa threw his slider a bit harder, more frequently and more effectively last season than he did in 2008.
I’m not certain if that’s the whim of small sample size or the sign of a real adjustment. Figueroa is a crafty guy, and maybe he made some change to his grip or delivery that allowed him to pitch to more weak contact.
I don’t think the Mets or most of their fans would be thrilled to see Figueroa penciled into the rotation for 2010, probably because he’s unspectacular, or because he’ll be 36 in May, or because of that old conventional wisdom.
But Figueroa’s great value is in his durability. As he told me back in 2008, he has thrown 153-pitch games and 280-inning years. I’m unclear on his contract status, but he’s still listed on the 40-man roster on Mets.com, and good. He should compete for a long relief role in Spring Training and is a great option to have around for spot starts for when someone in the rotation inevitably goes down.
