Bags under my eyes= tired of thinking about the Mets.
Daily Archives: January 22, 2010
The issue here
OK, so we’ve got the details: The Mets have traded Brian Stokes to the Angels for Gary Matthews Jr. and $21.5 million of the $23.5 million remaining on the two years left on his contract.
So it’s Brian Stokes for the right to have Gary Matthews Jr. on the team at the massively discounted rate of $2 million over two years.
Whoop-dee-doo.
The good news is that Angel Pagan hasn’t gone anywhere, and theoretically he will still have every opportunity to establish himself as the club’s starting center fielder until Carlos Beltran returns from injury. And Pagan should do that, because he’s a much better player, at this point, than Matthews.
The Mets needed someone to back up Pagan, and so they went out and got a player who, in their eyes, has proven he can play center field at the Major League level.
And that’s the issue here: Gary Matthews Jr. has spent the last three seasons proving that he cannot play center field at the Major League level.
Both UZR and plus/minus say Matthews has been a significantly below average defensive outfielder since joining the Angels in 2007.
Of course the talent evaluators the Mets employ apparently disagree with those imperfect but valuable tools, and here’s hoping they’re right.
Because other than some vague reputation for good defense, Matthews doesn’t bring a whole lot to the table. He had a nice year at the plate in 2006 — earning him a giant contract — but has been a bad hitter since, rocking a .708 OPS in his time with the Angels.
You might even say he’s been below replacement level. And the Mets just went out and traded something to get him.
And that’s the issue here.
Not that Stokes was any great shakes. For whatever reason, he was overrated by some Mets fans — this one included — simply because it appeared Jerry Manuel entirely forgot he existed for stretches of the 2009 season. But Stokes was probably lucky to have a sub-4.00 ERA in 2009 with his high 1.564 WHIP, and he never had overly impressive peripheral stats.
Still, as a hard-throwing relief pitcher who posted 108 ERA+ in 103 2/3 innings over two seasons with the Mets, Stokes was something of value. And they just traded something of value for something of arguably no value, since Matthews has done little over the past three years to show that he’s any better than the readily available replacement.
Make no mistake: This is a deal of a seventh reliever for a fifth outfielder. That’s nothing. This means very little in the grand scheme of things.
But it’s frustrating and a little frightening because it shows, once again, how the Mets seem to judge talent in a way that departs so severely from the stats they should now have at their disposal, then overpay to acquire that talent.
Tatis apparently back in mix
Mike Puma reports in today’s New York Post that the Mets could pursue Fernando Tatis if they decide not to sign Carlos Delgado.
Cool. I’ve been singing Tatis’ praises this offseason; he’s been a versatile and productive player for the Mets, and I could get on board with his return.
The article says that Tatis’ double-play groundouts last season are more notable than his other stats, but I would argue — and have argued — that they were merely a weird, flukish run of terrible luck.
What is funny, though, is that the story says “the team could look to Tatis for a platoon with Daniel Murphy.”
That’s well and good, and I guess since Tatis has a career .808 OPS against lefties, he’d represent an upgrade over Daniel Murphy when opposing southpaws are on the hill.
But interestingly enough, Tatis doesn’t really demonstrate a huge platoon split — he has a career .782 OPS against righties. Ryan Garko, whose career .792 OPS only barely trumps Tatis’ .790, demonstrates a much more severe split: He has an .887 lifetime figure against lefties against a .755 OPS versus righties.
If Garko’s looking for significantly more money than Tatis, it’s probably not worth rewarding him for the slight upgrade offensively against left-handers, given how infrequently teams really face lefties anyway plus Tatis’ defensive flexibility. Plus, if the Mets value Tatis’ versatility and hope to exploit it, he’s worth pursuing over Garko.
But if they’re exclusively looking for the platoon bat to pair with Murphy, Garko’s the–
Holy crap, apparently the Mets have just landed Gary Matthews Jr. I’m assuming this is bad, but I’m going to cut off this Fernando Tatis/Ryan Garko post right here while I find out more.
Items of note
The Jets show epic swagger. Maybe too much for my tastes. Seriously?
Cerrone says the Mets are up to something.
Patrick Sullivan absolutely destroys Murray Chass after Chass called him out on his blog. And if you’re in the mood, I recommend Duke Casanova’s similar ripjob of Chass’ work from back in March.
This does not bode well.