Points at Jonah Hill

The term “Moneyball” is now synonymous with on-base percentage, if mostly for people who don’t read. That misses the point of the book. Still, most Moneyball 2.0 articles take the position that a majority of baseball teams understand the importance of getting on base and keeping the lineup moving, such that it isn’t a way to find cheap, good players anymore. Moneyball-as-on-base-percentage is supposedly dead.

Only, once again, check out these current Mets. David Wright and Ike Davis are injured, Jason Bay can’t hit the ball past the infielders, and on most days, the lineup is Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, and a half-dozen second basemen scattered all over the field. But they keep scoring runs….

Because –- points at Jonah Hill –- they get on base.

Patrick Flood, PatrickFloodBlog.com.

OK, I remember what I said yesterday about not getting too caught up in the returns of a couple days’ worth of baseball games, even if what the Mets have done in the past four has been just about the craziest f@#$ing thing I’ve ever seen. But if we’re talking about stepping back and taking in the whole picture, we need to also count these recent games as part of that evidence. They happened, after all.

These Mets have a good offense. They’re third in the National League in runs per game and tied for second in park-adjusted OPS+ and batting average. They’re second in on-base percentage and tops in walks. They’re first in stolen bases and they steal them at a good clip.

They don’t hit a lot of home runs, but they sustain rallies. They do it, as Flood notes, without David Wright or Ike Davis, and with second basemen filling in everywhere. So what gives?

Remember this post? Last season, the Mets gave 1633 plate appearances to players with on-base percentages below .300, by far the most in their division. 1633. One thousand, six hundred and thirty three.

One game shy of the halfway point in 2011, the Mets have given only 173 plate appearances to players with OBPs below .300. One good game from Lucas Duda and that number will drop to 103. There’s a decent chance the Mets will end the season having given half as many total plate appearances to players with OBPs below .300 than Jeff Francoeur got for them in 2010.

Granted, .300 is an arbitrary mark and this is only an exercise. Plus the year’s not over yet and if one regular player goes into the tank before September that figure could spike a bit. But all nine of the guys the Mets started against the Tigers last night have on-base percentages above the league average, as do two of the guys who were on the bench.

For some reason, a few stubborn fools still act like it’s heresy to suggest that a team’s 27 outs are precious, and that clubs should be happy to waste many of them on players with big, exuberant swings that connect on rare occasions and miss on most. But I shouldn’t pander; I will assume for the sake of this post that you’ve now seen the value of a lineup without gaping holes.

It’s pretty sweet, really. Remember that accurate criticism of the Omar Minaya regime that persisted in some circles about how it never complemented great players with suitable roster depth? The Mets have two great players now, but they’re surrounded by a bunch of dudes who actually deserve to be playing regularly in the Majors. So we go on about their grit and revel in their resolve.

People seem eager to credit Jose Reyes for the Mets’ recent run, and good. It’s not all thanks to Reyes but he has been awesome, and if everyone’s going to blame star players undeservedly when a team struggles, the stars should certainly earn at least their fair share of the praise upon their team’s successes. We are still long in Reyes’ debt in this transaction.

Shame about the pitching, or they could really have something here.

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