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I don’t think Ruben Tejada is as bad at hitting as everyone else does

by Ted Berg on September 10th, 2010 at 1:25 pm

Since his first season in rookie ball, Tejada has also eschewed the walk. He didn’t hit average walk rates in Single-, Double- or Triple-A. He also had a career ISO of .075 in the minor leagues (and flyball rate that fell as he advanced, which seems to predict little future power), so he kind of looks like a younger Castillo without the walks and a little better defense. The defense is the reason management thinks he is best candidate for this year, but the offense will limit him to a backup most likely. If only he walked more, or even had the exciting speed of Arias, he would have a secondary skill beyond defense and upside for more value.

- Eno Sarris, Fangraphs.com.

Eno does a really nice job running down the Mets’ second-base situation, but I’m not sure he gives Tejada an entirely fair shake by saying he “has also eschewed the walk,” lumping him in with Joaquin Arias.

First of all, Arias walked in only about 4.3% of his Minor League plate appearances and Tejada walked in about 7.9%, a pretty big difference. But the major distinction is that Tejada did all his damage while always very young for his level — often the youngest player at his level, and a full year younger than Arias was as he progressed through the Minors.

Clearly Tejada’s not about to go all Alex Rodriguez on the Major Leagues or anything, but I’m just not ready to give up on him and say he won’t be a regular Major League middle infielder someday.

I don’t think that’s what Eno’s doing, but it seems like way too many Mets fans are willing to write Tejada off entirely just because the team has advanced him at a very young age to a level at which he cannot yet succeed. That’s not really his fault.

Plus, and not for nothing, it’s not like he’s completely embarrassing himself. Yes, he’s got a .188 average and no power to speak of. But he’s also suffering from a very low .221 batting average on balls in play, suggesting he has been victimized by a bit of bad luck. Plus, for whatever it’s worth, he’s still getting on base at a higher clip than three guys who were in the Mets’ hilarious Opening Day lineup (and just below two others).

And look: I don’t know that Ruben Tejada will ever turn into a productive Major League hitter or anything like that. I’m just saying that 200 plate appearances at age 20 mean absolutely nothing in the grand scheme of things. If he were in Double-A right now, where he’d still be young for the level, we’d probably be salivating over the kid and wondering why he wasn’t considered a bigger prospect.